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From:	soooright (98.68.197.45)
Subject:	Educated people who KNOW.
Date:	December 29, 2011 at 9:32 am PST

In Reply to: Just had to note.... despite what the AGW crowd says..... posted by Freedom Lover on December 28, 2011 at 12:45 pm:

I took this article from Parade magazine around to the
smartest people I knew at the time, about twenty years
ago, including MIT graduates, and PhDs in math and
other sciences, trying to get somebody to agree with
me that the given answer was right.

Question asked of Marilyn vos Savant:
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the
choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car,
behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say #1, and
the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens
another door, say #3, which has a goat. He says to
you, "Do you want to pick door #2?" Is it to your
advantage to switch your choice of doors?
Answer given:
Yes; you should switch. The first door has a 1/3
chance of winning, but the second door has a 2/3
chance. Here's a good way to visualize what happened.
Suppose there are a million doors, and you pick door
#1. Then the host, who knows what's behind the doors
and will always avoid the one with the prize, opens
them all except door #777,777. You'd switch to that
door pretty fast, wouldn't you?

EVERYBODY I asked, without a single exception,
emphatically said it simply didn't matter if the
player switched or not. To Jack: No, even if you tell
me that Marilyn vos Savant believes without question
in the truth of AGW, that alone would not persuade me.

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