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From: TSS ()
Subject: INCIDENCE OF VCJD ONSETS AND DEATHS IN THE UK JAN 1994 - MAR 2005
Date: April 19, 2005 at 8:55 am PST

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: INCIDENCE OF VCJD ONSETS AND DEATHS IN THE UK JAN 1994 - MAR 2005
Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 09:25:57 -0500
From: "Terry S. Singeltary Sr."
Reply-To: Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy
To: BSE-L@LISTS.UNI-KARLSRUHE.DE


##################### Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy #####################

INCIDENCE OF VARIANT CREUTZFELDT-JAKOB DISEASE ONSETS AND DEATHS IN THE UK

January 1994  March 2005

N J Andrews, Senior Statistician

Statistics Unit, CDSC, Health Protection Agency

14th April 2005

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Summary | Introduction
| vCJD data
| Methods
| Results

Summary

Two new cases of vCJD were diagnosed from January to March 2005,
bringing the total reported in the UK to 155. Of these cases, 149 have
died, including one in the last quarter. Six diagnosed cases are still
alive.

Results from modelling the underlying incidence of deaths indicate that
the epidemic reached a peak at about 6 deaths per quarter in mid 2000
and has since declined to a current incidence of about 1.5 deaths per
quarter. Extrapolating the best fitting model (the quadratic model)
gives an estimate of 5 deaths in the next 12 months (95% prediction
interval 1 to 11).

It is important to note that although a peak has been passed, it is
possible that there will be future peaks, possibly in other genetic
groups. There is also the possibility of ongoing person to person spread.


Introduction

Each quarter data on diagnosed cases of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob
disease (vCJD) in the UK are reviewed in order to investigate trends in
the underlying rate at which deaths are occurring. The present report
reviews the data for all individuals who had been classified as definite
or probable cases by the end of March 2005. Since the previous report,
which covered the period to the end of December 2004, two further cases
of vCJD have been diagnosed giving a total of 155 cases. There have now
been a total of 149 deaths reported, with one in the most recent quarter.


vCJD data

For these analyses we have included all cases notified to the National
CJD Surveillance Unit (NCJDSU) and classified as definite or probable by
the end of March 2005 (Table 1).

Table 1 Cases of vCJD classified as definite or probable by end of March
2005

Dead* Alive Total
Male 83 4 87
Female 66 2 68
Total 149 6 155

*Deaths including 107 definite and 42 probable (without
neuropathological confirmation).

Definite cases are those confirmed neuropathologically. To date all
probable cases for which neuropathological data have become available
have subsequently been confirmed as definite. The date of diagnosis is
taken as the date when diagnosed as probable or, when this is not
available, the date of confirmation of a definite case.

There have been more deaths in males than females (56% males) but this
excess is compatible with random variation (p=0.15).

Numbers of cases by onset, notification, diagnosis and death are given
below by year along with the median age at death by year of death (Table 2).

Table 2 Annual cases by onset, notification, diagnosis and death
(including median age at death by year of death)

Year

Onset

Notified

Diagnosis

Death

Median age at death

1994

8

0

0

0

-

1995

10

8

7

3

-

1996

11

9

8

10

30

1997

14

13

12

10

26

1998

17

20

17

18

25.5

1999

29

16

17

15

29

2000

24

29

27

28

25.5

2001

17

21

25

20

28

2002

14

15

16

17

29

2003 5 16 16 18

28

2004 6 6 8 9

26

2005-Q1 0 2 2 1

-

Total 155 155 155 149

28


Methods

After grouping deaths by quarter the incidence of deaths were modelled
by Poisson regression using polynomials (exponential,
quadratic-exponential, cubic-exponential) and also a model with a rise
to a plateau. Most deaths are reported quickly so an adjustment for
reporting delay is not necessary.


Results

The quadratic trend model (figure) fits the data better than the
exponential model (p<0.001). There was no evidence that the cubic model
is an improvement on the quadratic model (p=0.68). The plateau model did
not fit the data as well as the quadratic model with evidence of a lack
of fit (p=0.01), indicating that a peak has been passed.

From the quadratic model, the current incidence is estimated at 1.5
deaths per quarter. If the quadratic model is assumed to be correct then
the peak is estimated to have occurred in mid 2000.

Prediction for deaths in the next 12 months

The model with the quadratic term predicts a total of 5 deaths in the
next 12 months with a 95% prediction interval of 1 to 11.

http://www.cjd.ed.ac.uk/vcjdqmar05.htm

Greetings,


SADLY, in 2005, sporadic CJD deaths remains on the back burners,
where research and concern has wavered. WE are the forgotten ones.
I had thought the Human BSE Foundation was going to come to
grips with the 'chosen ones' approach and start to include all human
TSEs, but i have heard this is not the case now, and they have now taken
two steps backward to a closed door society and will still continue
with the BSE/nvCJD only theory. WE all will loose out with this
approach. To combat the lies and deceit that has gripped the
human/animal TSE issues over the past 4 decades will take a force
of one, a larger force. OUR splintered and bitter groups will never
be a force of one, unless we all are together in this, something the
Human BSE foundation refuses to do. we all loose in this case, even
the chosen ones loose... TSS

SPORADIC CJD

SEE INCREASE OF SPORADIC CJD FROM 1993 TO 2003


TOTAL CASES OF SPORADIC CJD (DEATHS)


DEFINITE AND PROBABLE CASES


Australia Austria Canada France Germany Italy Netherlands Slovakia Spain
Switzerland UK
1993 17 6 - 35 21+ 27 12 2 21 10 37
1994 11 9 2r 46 70 33 18 2 16 10 53
1995 19 9 3r 59 80 28 8 2 19 9 35
1996 25 9 13r 68 76 51 14 2 27 10 40
1997 20 6 16r 80 107 47 19 3 31 10 60
1998 25 8 22s 81 115 63 18 3 61 9 63
1999 25 6 26 92 103 77 18 1 50 8 62
2000 28 8 32 86 110 59 11 2 44 10 50
2001 20 10 27 110 123 81 14 2 61 18 58
2002 16 7 30 108 96 80 15 5 50 19 72
2003 20 15 25 108 96 76 13 2 53 17 77
2004* 11 7 14 66 82 65 13 1** 27 16 51
Total 237 100 210 939 1118 687 173 27 460 146 658

*to 31 December 2004 **to 31 March 2004 +from 1 June 1993
r=retrospective s=start date of April 1998


ANNUAL MORTALITY RATES PER MILLION

Australia Austria Canada France Germany Italy Netherlands Slovakia Spain
Switzerland UK
1993 0.96 0.77 - 0.60 0.44 0.48 0.79 0.40 0.54 1.44 0.63
1994 0.62 1.15 0.07r 0.80 0.85 0.58 1.18 0.40 0.41 1.42 0.91
1995 1.05 1.15 0.10r 1.02 1.00 0.49 0.52 0.40 0.48 1.27 0.60
1996 1.37 1.15 0.44r 1.18 0.93 0.89 0.90 0.40 0.69 1.41 0.68
1997 1.08 0.77 0.53r 1.38 1.30 0.83 1.21 0.60 0.79 1.41 1.03
1998 1.34 1.03 0.73s 1.38 1.40 1.11 1.15 0.40 1.55 1.27 1.08
1999 1.32 0.77 0.86 1.53 1.25 1.35 1.14 0.20 1.27 1.13 1.06
2000 1.46 1.03 1.04 1.46 1.34 1.02 0.69 0.40 1.11 1.40 0.86
2001 1.03 1.24 0.87 1.79 1.50 1.40 0.88 0.40 1.54 2.50 0.99
2002 0.81 0.87 0.96 1.76 1.17 1.38 0.93 1.00 1.26 2.63 1.23
2003 1.01 1.90 0.79 1.76 1.17 1.31 0.80 0.40 1.34 2.34 1.30
2004* 0.55 0.87 0.44 1.08 1.29 1.12 0.80 0.80** 0.68 2.19 0.87
Mean Rate 1.05 1.06 0.93 1.31 1.14 0.99 0.92 0.52 1.01 1.70 0.94

*to 31 December 2004 **to 31 March 2004

http://www.eurocjd.ed.ac.uk/sporadic.htm

TSS

######### https://listserv.kaliv.uni-karlsruhe.de/warc/bse-l.html ##########





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