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From: TSS ()
Subject: Risk of variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease in France
Date: February 11, 2005 at 12:08 pm PST

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Risk of variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease in France
Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2005 09:36:34 -0600
From: "Terry S. Singeltary Sr."
Reply-To: Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy
To: BSE-L@LISTSERV.KALIV.UNI-KARLSRUHE.DE


##################### Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy #####################


Article


Risk of variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease in France

Marc Chadeau-Hyam* and Annick Alpérovitch

INSERM U 360, Hôpital La Salpêtrière, 75651 Paris Cedex 13, France

* Corresponding author. E-mail: marc.chadeau@chups.jussieu.fr


Background France has the second highest number of variant
Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease (vCJD) cases worldwide. Imports of bovine
carcasses from the UK probably constituted the main source of exposure
of the French population to the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE)
agent. Meat products consumed whilst visiting the UK have also been
considered as a possible source of exposure.

Methods We estimated the number of future vCJD cases in France using a
simulation approach. Both the distribution of the vCJD incubation period
and the age-dependent susceptibility to the BSE agent were estimated
from UK data. The French epidemic was simulated by gender and
birth-cohort from data on the infectivity of UK bovine tissues and
simulations of the French consumption of infected beef products. We also
used data on travel to the UK between 1980 and 1995.

Results We predicted 33 future cases of vCJD: 12 in the 1940–69
birth-cohort and 21 in the post-1969 birth-cohort. No case was predicted
in the pre-1940 cohort. Based on our model, simulated vCJD cases
occurred later in the older (1940–69) than in the younger cohort
(post-1969). Age at onset was stable in the post-1969 cohort and
increased in the older cohort. The model predicted a small excess of
male patients. No case was attributed to travels in the UK.

Conclusions This modelling confirms that a large vCJD epidemic in France
is very unlikely. Since France (where 60% of the total British exports
of bovine carcasses were exported) has been highly exposed to the BSE
agent, our results are reassuring for most countries worldwide.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Keywords Epidemiology, vCJD, France, predictions, simulation, exposure
to BSE agent, birth-cohort

Accepted 6 October 2004

http://ije.oupjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/34/1/46?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&fulltext=prion&searchid=1108135499087_1193&stored_search=&FIRSTINDEX=0&volume=34&issue=1&journalcode=intjepid

RG Will
Commentary: The risk of variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob Disease: reassurance
and uncertainty
Int. J. Epidemiol., Feb 2005; 34: 52 - 53.
...To date all clinical cases of vCJD in which the prion protein gene (
PRNP ) has been examined have been methionine homozygotes, with no
identified...
...Cattle are uniformly methionine homozygotes and homology of prion
protein types is thought to lead to greater efficiency of prion protein
conversion....

http://ije.oupjournals.org/cgi/content/full/34/1/52?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&fulltext=prion&searchid=1108135499087_1193&stored_search=&FIRSTINDEX=0&volume=34&issue=1&journalcode=intjepid

sporadic CJD FRANCE

1992 -- 38
1993 -- 35
1994 -- 46
1995 -- 59
1996 -- 68
1997 -- 80
1998 -- 81
1999 -- 92
2000 -- 86
2001 -- 110
2002 -- 108
2003 -- 108

http://www.invs.sante.fr/publications/mcj/archives/2005_01_31.html

TSS


######### https://listserv.kaliv.uni-karlsruhe.de/warc/bse-l.html ##########





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