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From: TSS (216-119-129-71.ipset9.wt.net)
Subject: DAILY COMMODITY MARKET COMMENTARY (MEAT/USA/BSE) Friday, November 5, 2004
Date: November 5, 2004 at 10:02 am PST

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: DAILY COMMODITY MARKET COMMENTARY (MEAT) Friday, November 5, 2004
Date: Fri, 5 Nov 2004 09:03:03 -0600
From: "Terry S. Singeltary Sr."
Reply-To: Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy
To: BSE-L@UNI-KARLSRUHE.DE


##################### Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy #####################

Meats: Cattle sector continues get smashed into the abyss. Traders that
followed our cattle news and positioned in long term puts should pat
themselves on the back, great job. We are guessing the world is waking
up to how bad the testing for Mad Cow disease is here in the United
States. Jan. Feeder Cattle should be testing the $1.00 level on the near
term. Feb. Live Cattle broke major support near the 87 cents per pound
level and next target should be near 80 cents per pound. Traders that
sold futures or bought put options should be looking at protecting
profits by using trailing stops. High Prices and Weak Fundamentals.
Earlier last week France discovered a sheep infected with Mad Cow
disease. Rumors that Japan and Taiwan may partially lift the ban on U.S.
Beef Trade with the United States. When the ban is lifted for the United
States it will probably also be lifted for Canadian Beef. Let's touch
base on Japan they imported last year about 1.3 billion dollars worth of
beef from the United States. Japan has banned U.S. Beef because of the
Mad Cow found in Washington State last December. Japan tests 100 percent
of all cattle for human consumption and Europe tests 1 in 4. What does
the USDA test here in the Unites States??? The European Comm.'s risk
assessment of the U.S. states that young age at slaughter makes it
unlikely that full clinical cases could be detected. Half of the U.S.
cows don't make it past 4 here in the U.S. before being turned into
hamburger meat. Europe test about 2000 times more cattle then what the
U.S. does. Testing of every cow slaughtered for human consumption in the
U.S. is the only way to ensure the safety of the American people and
foreigners that import. What happened in Washington last December of
discovering Mad Cow Disease is not surprising what is surprising is that
the inadequacy of our testing program actually found it. Traders should
avoid the long side of this market and build long term put positions.
Live and Feeder Cattle are still trading near historical highs.

Hogs closed with near limit up gains again yesterday and have now
rallied from 64 to 73 cents per pound. Monthly chart resistance is heavy
near the 77 cent mark. Feb. Hogs made a new contract highs again
yesterday and traders should be looking for long term puts or selling
futures. Canada has a strike going involving 600 workers at the Quality
Meats processing facility which began at midnight Monday. We are looking
for the market to drift to the major support level near 60 cents per
pound into year end. Nice volatile action. The next targets should be
the major support levels at 61 to 60 cent per pound.

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/content/100530/content.asp?menu=commodities&dia=5112004

TSS

################# BSE-L-subscribe-request@uni-karlsruhe.de #################





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