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From: TSS (wt-d6-177.wt.net)
Subject: DAILY COMMODITY MARKET COMMENTARY Monday, November 1, 2004 14:56 GMT
Date: November 1, 2004 at 7:20 am PST

DAILY COMMODITY MARKET COMMENTARY Monday, November 1, 2004 14:56 GMT
Daily Report
by Traders Exchange Corporation
http://www.tradersexchange.com

snip...

Meats: Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle got destroyed on Friday and closed near 5 month lows. December Live Cattle broke major support near the 85 cents per pound level. Feeder Cattle smashed through major support at $1.07 and next targets are $1.04 and $1.00 Traders that sold futures or bought put options should be looking at protecting profits trailing stops. More selling ahead is expected. High Prices and Weak Fundamentals. Earlier last week France discovered a sheep infected with Mad Cow disease. Rumors that Japan and Taiwan may partially lift the ban on U.S. Beef Trade with the United States. When the ban is lifted for the United States it will probably also be lifted for Canadian Beef. Let's touch base on Japan they imported last year about 1.3 billion dollars worth of beef from the United States. Japan has banned U.S. Beef because of the Mad Cow found in Washington State last December. Japan tests 100 percent of all cattle for human consumption and Europe tests 1 in 4. What does the USDA test here in the Unites States??? The European Comm.'s risk assessment of the U.S. states that young age at slaughter makes it unlikely that full clinical cases could be detected. Half of the U.S. cows don't make it past 4 here in the U.S. before being turned into hamburger meat. Europe test about 2000 times more cattle then what the U.S. does. Testing of every cow slaughtered for human consumption in the U.S. is the only way to ensure the safety of the American people and foreigners that import. What happened in Washington last December of discovering Mad Cow Disease is not surprising what is surprising is that the inadequacy of our testing program actually found it. Traders should avoid the long side of this market and build long term put positions. Live and Feeder Cattle are still trading near historical highs.

Hogs are resting just above the 65 cent level and traders should be prepared for that level to get hammered within a few days. More technical weakness should be expected and we are looking for the market to drift to the major support level near 60 cents per pound into year end. Nice volatile action. Traders should look to be sellers on rallies close to 70 cents per pound. The next targets should be the major support levels at 61 to 60 cent per pound....

TSS




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