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From: TSS (216-119-143-149.ipset23.wt.net)
Risk of introduction of BSE into Japan by the historical importation Preventive Veterinary Medicine Volume 64, Issues 2-4 Katsuaki SugiuraCorresponding Author Contact Information Food Safety Commission, Cabinet Office, 2-13-10 Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8989, Japan Received 4 July 2003; Revised 22 March 2004; accepted 2 May 2004. Available online 28 July 2004. All cattle of UK and German origin imported to Japan since 1980 and slaughtered before 2002 were traced (n = 33 and 15 respectively) and the probability that none, one, two or three of these imported cattle had developed BSE (reached the end or last stage of incubation period) at the year of slaughter/death was calculated. The predicted risk that BSE was introduced into Japan by imported cattle was 0.18. Among cattle imported from these countries in various years, cattle imported from the UK in 1987 and 1988 presented the highest risk, while the risk that BSE entered Japan by live cattle imported from the UK in 1982 and from Germany in 1993 was negligible. Because there was no effective system to avoid the recycling of the BSE agent, those infected cattle imported from the UK in 1987 and 1988 most probably entered the feed chain in Japan in 1992 and 1993. Author Keywords: Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE); Import risk analysis; Japan; Live cattle; Simulation; Modelling http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6TBK-4CYNWV6-1&_user=10&_handle=B-WA-A-W-AC-MsSAYVW-UUA-AUEZZEZYUU-AUEVWDDZUU-CEEACDCYW-AC-U&_fmt=summary&_coverDate=07%2F16%2F2004&_rdoc=10&_orig=browse&_srch=%23toc%235145%232004%23999359997%23514577!&_cdi=5145&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=c55c7573336f1589adbf76c396b0fb2d TSS
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