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From: PB (
Subject:         You read the tables wrong.
Date: May 21, 2007 at 1:36 am PST

In Reply to: a quarter??? try less than .05% posted by Saysfaa on March 27, 2007 at 6:57 am:

In 1930, 70 white babies out of 1000 died before their first birthday:

Of those who SURVIVED, 700 per 100k died EVERY YEAR from ages 1-4, and of those who survived 230 died EVERY YEAR from ages 5-9, and of those who survived 200 died EVERY YEAR from ages 10-14, and of those who survived 350 died EVERY YEAR from ages 15-19.

Starting out with 1,000,000 live births and assuming an all-white population, you end up with 869,599 children still alive at the age of 20. That's a bit more than half of my quarter, but it's a LOT closer to a quarter than it is to your .5%.

In contrast, out of 1,000,000 live births today, you end up with about 986,771 children still alive at age 20, or a an aggragate death rate of 1.4%.

Where 70 babies died in 1930, 7.2 die today.

Where 700 between the ages of 1-4 died in 1930, 21 die today.

Where 230 between the ages of 5-9 died in 1930, 15 die today.

Where 200 between the ages of 10-14 died in 1930, 20 die today.

Where 350 between the ages of 15-19 died in 1930, 70 die today.

THIS is the legacy of discouraging pregnant mothers from drinking and smoking, banning lead paint, insisting upon carseats and seatbelts, requiring immunizations, not riding in an open pickup, and making kids wear helmets when they ride.

I'd keep my kids far, far away from Delilah.

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